UNG - Natural Gas

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Adam Smith's picture
User offline. Last seen 11 years 16 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 02/27/2009

So while I wish its mechanism was a more distributed purchase, I'm beocming a bit of a bull on natural gas and UNG.  It hasn't really participated in the run-up in commodities (which may very well be ending), and right now they have a glut, however
1.) Natural gas has high replacement rates.  Just to keep up current production they will have to invest in more drilling.
2.) Just like oil, it has a self-correcting mechanism.  When prices are low, no one drills and eventually supply will drop.  Additionally however, because they have such a falloff naturally the cycle should be shorter.
3.) Everyone's down on natural gas.  Call me a contrarian but that sounds a bit like a bottom to me. 
4.) Natural gas could very well have a big part in any "greener" future, which could be good for demand.

While I think you'll have contango issues, just like with USO, I still think UNG may be starting to become appealing.